ruk·si

🧠 Decision Making

Updated at 2022-07-29 05:40

Divide and Conquer. List all pros and cons of each option or divide a prediction to the smallest pieces you can.

Learn and practice introspection. Find the answer to the question "why am I thinking this?" or "what lead to this conclusion?". This is a good exercise to do daily; reflect back on your daily decisions to improve your self-awareness.

Be decisive. Make a decision with the information you have and move on. Leaving things vague usually leads to confusion and miscommunication.

Have grit. Going towards a goal even setbacks and failures. Learn from mistakes but don't let them slow you down.

Recognize when you are in denial.

  • Your brain likes to order things. Memorizing patterns takes less energy.
  • After ordering, you brain tries to resist any change.
  • The stronger the commitment, the harder the resistance.
  • "To be in denial" is the transitioning phase of re-ordering combined with ego.

Avoid the Illusion of Control. It is the overestimation of your ability to control events. Simple repetitive correct coin toss guesses already increases ones confidence to guess right and via versa, which is incorrect.

Avoid under- or overreaction. Underreaction dismisses new information and overreaction dismisses old information. Most people naturally overreact, don't dismiss what you already know.

When you are unsure, remember that most things regress to a mean. It is a good guess that things will continue as in the past with some fluctuation. Happiness, people height, economy, everything.

Decision Matrix

  1. Write down the decision you need to make
  2. Write down options you have
  3. Identify factors to be considered
  4. Add weight for each factor, not all factors are equally important
  5. Calculate the total scores

Decide which cola brand to order online...

FactorsCostFlavorUnhealthinessScore
Weights-23-2-
Coca-Cola1212
Fritz-kola2424
Pepsi1315

...thus, order Pepsi

Sources

  • Superforecasting, Philip Tetlock